PA - SEN

The retirement of Republican incumbent Pat Toomey presents Democrats with the rare chance to pick up a Senate seat in a midterm year, and their success here is likely the only path to holding the chamber. Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who rose to national prominence as all eyes turned towards Philadelphia vote counting in 2020, faces off against daytime TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz. Fetterman has hammered Jersey resident Dr. Oz as a carpetbagger, but has faced trouble himself over his mental acuity following a stroke and a 2013 incident in which he drew a shotgun on an unarmed Black jogger. Can he flip the seat in a state Biden won narrowly?

Past Results:
2014-GOV Wolf+10
2016-PRES Trump+0.7
2016-SEN Toomey+1.5
2018-SEN Casey+13
2018-GOV Wolf+17
2020-PRES Biden+1.2
FiveThirtyEight Odds:
43% | 57%
GA - SEN

Rev. Raphael Warnock, pastor of MLK's Ebeneezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, shocked the political world with his thorough defeat of Kelly Loeffler in a 2020 runoff election that saw Democrats take both Georgia Senate seats. His opponent, former NFL running back and Heisman Trophy winner Herschel Walker, has no political experience but has Trump's endorsement and easily cleared the field in the Republican primary but has been hurt by revelations that he paid for the abortions of multiple women. Can Warnock hold on to his seat in newly competitive Georgia?

Past Results:
2016-SEN Isakson+14
2016-PRES Trump+5
2018-GOV Kemp+1.4
2020-PRES Biden+0.2
2020-SEN Ossoff+1.3
2020-SEN(S) Warnock+2
FiveThirtyEight Odds:
37% | 63%
GA - GOV

Incumbent Governer Brian Kemp only barely defeated Democratic superstar Stacey Abrams when they last faced off for this office in 2018. Since then, his refusal to install Trump-voting electors in 2020 has left the ex-president (and some of his supporters literally) calling for his head. However, he humiliated Trump-backed David Perdue in the Republican primary, and now cruises towards the election with a sizeable lead in polls. Abrams' organizing singlehandedly turned Georgia blue in 2020, but can her new political machine deliver her the governer's mansion?

Past Results:
2016-SEN Isakson+14
2016-PRES Trump+5
2018-GOV Kemp+1.4
2020-PRES Biden+0.2
2020-SEN Ossoff+1.3
2020-SEN(S) Warnock+2
FiveThirtyEight Odds:
6% | 94%
AZ - SEN

Mark Kelly, former NASA astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords, won this seat in a 2020 special election following the death of John McCain. His victory sparked the implosion of the Arizona GOP, who in the past two years have censured the only two living Republicans who have won statewide office, conducted an audit of 2020 voting that instead of revealing a Trump victory showed that Biden won by more than previously thought, and kicked John McCain's widow Cindy out of the party. Can their late rally behind venture capitalist Blake Masters turn Arizona red once more?

Past Results:
2016-SEN McCain+13
2016-PRES Trump+3.5
2018-SEN Sinema+2.3
2018-GOV Ducey+14
2020-PRES Biden+0.3
2020-SEN(S) Kelly+2.4
FiveThirtyEight Odds:
66% | 34%
NH - SEN

Democrats caught a break in New Hampshire when popular Republican Governor Chris Sununu declined to run for Senate, and then mounted a successful campaign to promote radical election denier Don Bolduc to victory in the Republican primary in hopes of creating a more favorable matchup on election day. Incumbent senator Maggie Hassan will have fingers crossed for that strategy to pay off, as polls have this race as less of a sure thing than Democrats may have hoped.

Past Results:
2016-PRES Clinton+0.4
2016-SEN Hassan+0.2
2018-GOV Sununu+7
2020-PRES Biden+7
2020-SEN Shaheen+16
2020-GOV Sununu+32
FiveThirtyEight Odds:
72% | 28%
KS - GOV

Kansas was the site of Republicans' most concerning political defeat of the year when a proposed post-Roe abortion ban was shot down by voters at the ballot box, a signal of Dems energy following the Supreme Court's descision. Incumbent Laura Kelly is hoping that energy has persisted into the fall enough for her to hold on, but can Attorney General Derek Schmidt pull off the upset?

Past Results:
2016-PRES Trump+21
2016-SEN Moran+30
2018-GOV Kelly+5
2020-PRES Trump+15
2020-SEN Marshall+12
FiveThirtyEight Odds:
62% | 38%
NC - SEN

North Carolina is the host to another open seat following the retirement of Republican incumbent Richard Burr. Once a promising purple state, victory has been elusive for Democrats since Obama carried the state in 2008. Will Black voters be motivated to turn out for NC Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley, or can Ted Budd ride national tides to victory?

Past Results:
2016-GOV Cooper+0.2
2016-PRES Trump+3.6
2016-SEN Burr+6
2020-GOV Cooper+4.5
2020-PRES Trump+1.3
2020-SEN Tillis+1.8
FiveThirtyEight Odds:
18% | 82%
NV - SEN

Gotta be honest with you I'm kind of tired of writing these and I don't have a lot to say about this race, but it's one of the closest so it belongs here. Nevada is a weird state. Basically everyone lives in Vegas or Carson City. A huge percentage of voters work in the hospitality and restaurant sectors. They were super anti-Covid precautions the last two years. Laxalt ran for governor in 2018 and lost. Do you know what to make of that? I don't. Good luck!

Past Results:
2016-SEN Masto+2.5
2016-PRES Clinton+2.4
2018-SEN Rosen+5
2018-GOV Sisolak+4
2020-PRES Biden+2.3
FiveThirtyEight Odds:
49% | 51%
Tiebreaker - US HOUSE
How many seats will the Republican party control in the House? (Reminder: there are 435 seats in the House, Republicans control 212 currently, 538 projects they'll control 230 at the end of the night.) Closest wins.